The Blue Jays offense was simply unable to generate any short of threat against Jose Quintana of the White Sox last night. Temporary Jose Reyes replacement Munenori Kawasaki, Edwin Encarnacion and Rajai Davis (including a double for the Blue Jays only extra-base hit) each had two hits on the night (although one of Encarnacion’s singles came off reliever Jesse Crain). Encarnacion and Kawasaki drew bases on balls from Quintana. Six hits, two walks, no runs – that was the sum total of the Blue Jays offense last night. Obviously they lost the game, by a score of 7-0 as J.A. Happ turned in what will likely be one of several clunkers from the fifth starter spot on the season.
However, this is not about Happ. It is about the offense – this woeful, anaemic, sputtering offense. The seemingly vaunted Blue Jays offense has averaged merely 3.6 runs per game (24th in MLB). There have been some big games in there, too – a 10-run game and two 8-run games. The Blue Jays have scored 54 runs, 26 of them (48.1%) have come in three games; in the other games, the Jays are averaging 2.3 runs per game. That is a mark that would put them 29th in MLB ahead of only the pitiful Miami Marlins, who are essentially a glorified Triple-A team at this point. Since Jose Reyes went down in a heap at second base last Friday night, the Jays have scored a mere 12 runs in five games, including the shutout last night (2.4 runs per game). All the blame for the struggles cannot be placed on the absence of Jose Reyes, although he was clearly the Blue Jays’ best offensive player in the early going. Jose Bautista has also been out of the lineup, since Monday, with back spasms and an ear infection. In the three games he has missed so far, The Blue Jays have scored eight runs (2.7 runs per game). Awful.
What offense has occurred is primarily being carried by two men – J.P. Arencibia and Colby Rasmus. Arencibia is off to a roaring start this season with a .361 wOBA in 57 plate appearances. Unfortunately, this is primarily driven by the five home runs he has hit (.339 ISO). Sporting a putrid trio of a 263 OBP, 1.8 BB% and a 35.1 K%, his success simply cannot be expected to continue. Rasmus has been another all-or-nothing hitter for the Blue Jays this year with four home runs of his own, (.375 wOBA, .326 ISO). These numbers are further driven up by a .368 BABIP, unsustainable for someone with his speed level (.268 career). He has mustered a more respectable .314 OBP; however strikeouts have been a major problem for him as well. Rasmus is walking 9.8% of the time, above his career rate, but this is coupled with an absurd 45.1 K%. Obviously a small sample is being analyzed here (51 PA) and regression towards his career value will occur, but what Rasmus is showing is still a cause for concern. It is enough of a concern to shield him from left-handed pitchers – meaning his powerful bat was not in the lineup tonight against Quintana and he was pinch-hit for by Rajai Davis in the seventh inning the night prior.
Unfortunately, Adam Lind suffers from even worse split issues (the worst hitter by far against southpaws since 2010), and many situations are arising where these players need to be pinch-hit for. This is where Bautista’s presence on the roster is causing a problem. The Blue Jays currently have the standard roster setup of 12 pitchers and four bench players. One of the players is backup catcher Henry Blanco, who must remain available to replace Arencibia and who wields a bat for little more than effect (career 65 wRC+). This leaves three men on the bench who are available to pinch-hit. However, despite repeated clams of Bautista returning to the lineup the following day, he has been unable to do so. This leaves two men on the bench. One must be kept behind in case of injuries, so the Blue Jays have extremely limited options. Casper Wells, an intriguing lefty-masher claimed off waivers from Seattle, was designated for assignment in order to place Ramon Ortiz (who moped up nicely giving 3.1 IP behind Happ last night) on the 40-man roster.
This is making it painfully apparent that something needs to happen with Bautista. He either needs to return to the lineup, or be placed on the disabled list. Since he last appeared in Sunday’s game, his DL stint can be back-dated to Monday, meaning that three of the required 15 days have already elapsed. Since Gibbons has been “unsure” about Bautista’s ability to pinch-hit, I am wondering if the ability to back-date a potential DL stint has been part of the reason. Using Bautista as a pinch-hitter would require him to miss three more days than he already has. The Blue Jays are seeing Andy Pettitte in the first game of the weekend Yankee series and the Yankees carry Boone Logan, a southpaw who absolutely wipes out left-handed hitters (.309 wOBA against) in their bullpen.
Without depth on the bench, the Blue Jays run the high risk of being exposed late and losing one of the few bright spots in their depleted lineup when a lefty starts. The Jays have to make a decision on Bautista tonight. Hopefully he is in the lineup and this rant is largely rendered moot, but if not, I expect a DL stint, because the Blue Jays can no longer afford to wait.
Welp. This post became largely moot in hurry. Good news (I hope).
I should have probably done this prior to Sunday, but here are my standings and wards predictions for the 2013 season:
AL MVP: Edwin Encarnacion – TOR
NL MVP: Bryce Harper – WAS
AL: Cy Young: Josh Johnson – TOR
NL Cy Young: Stephen Strasburg – WAS
AL: Rookie of the Year: Aaron Hicks – MIN
NL Rookie of the Year: Shelby Miller – STL
I am not going to predict playoff results as the sample size invites a considerable amount of randomness, but if you have any comments, feel free to share them.
I look forward to blogging and interacting with you throughout the year.