This Christmas has become something of a disappointment for Jays fans. For several days and especially for a few agonizing hours, there was hope that we would receive a great gift, the talents of Japanese ace Yu Darvish. Unfortunately, the Texas Rangers won the bidding for Darvish’s rights with a record bid of $51.7 million. We also hoped that a Prince would come to save us, but according to Alex Anthopoulos and Paul Beeston, fans can forget about that too. Something about not giving contracts in excess of five years to hitters and three years to pitchers. However, the team has several good pieces in, or not far from The Show and could surprise many people in the next two years. That said; here is my Christmas list of the top ten Blue Jays desires in 2012:
10: Production from Kelly Johnson
When Aaron Hill put forth another putrid season with the Jays for four-and-a-half months in 2011, it was clear that the Jays needed to make a change. Since hitting 36 homers in 2009, Hill has never been the same. Keep in mind, the 36-homer,, if extrapolated over a full season would have put him 4.1 fWAR season came AFTER his concussion, indicating that the concussion seems to have little impact on his performance drop, contrary to what some have suggested. Hill was packaged with John McDonald to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Kelly Johnson, who enjoyed a 128 wRC+, 5.9 WAR 2010, but was struggling in 2011 with an 87 wRC+ at the time of the swap. He went on to post a 114 wRC+ in 33 games with the Jays and 0.8 WAR after playing 113 games with Arizona for 1.1 WAR. Hill posted 104, 61, -0.8 with Toronto and 33, 134, 1.6 in the desert. All the best to him. Johnson ‘s 114 wRC+, if extrapolated over a whole season would have had him seventh in the Majors at his position, right between Dan Uggla and Brandon Phillips – decent company. Johnson is somewhat cost-controlled through his acceptance of arbitration and his solidification of a perennial weak point for the Jays could be a key factor in 2012 success.
9: Emergence of Colby Rasmus
Colby Rasmus came to the Jays at the trading deadline as part of a three-team deal with the St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago White Sox. While the Jays did give up pitching prospect Zach Stewart and lefty killer Marc Rzepczynski, who each proved their worth at times with their new clubs (The Cardinals won the World Series thanks in no small part to the duo of Octavio Dotel and Rzepczynski who proved to be stellar antidotes for the Milwaukee Brewers duo of Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, respectively, along with neutralizing Nelson Cruz and Josh Hamilton of the Texas Rangers in the World Series) , if Rasmus blossoms into the star he was projected to be when he was drafted, the trade will end up going down as a heist. Rasmus struggled mightily in Toronto with a .517 OPS, .225 wOBA, 34 wRC+ and -0.5 WAR over 34 games, although he did have a hot streak in August that was interrupted by a wrist injury. He posted a .859 OPS, .366 wOBA, 129 wRC+ at age 23-24, so there is a lot to like, especially at a premium defensive position. A return to those numbers or beyond isn’t out of the question and could allow Anthony Gose to marinate properly in the minor leagues into a true five-tool player.
8: Stability in the ninth inning
The Jays bullpen blew 26 saves last year (part of that was due to the gutting in the Rasmus deal) and the duo of Jon Rauch and Frank Francisco struggled with save opportunities at times. Both left as free agents and AA wanted to find a dominating closer for the ninth inning. The price of free agent closers has been ridiculous (Jonathan Papelbon signed for 4 years/$58 million with Philadelphia) so he decided it would be best to go the trade route. He acquired right-hander Sergio Santos from the Chicago White Sox for pitching prospect Nestor Molina who put up a 2.45 FIP in 108.1 IP and a 0.47 FIP in 22 innings at Single- and Double-A respectively as a 22-year-old. Steep price it would seem, but as Kevin Goldstein put it: the numbers don’t match the stuff and the numbers tell a rosier story.
Santos, a converted shortstop and former Jay, recorded over 13 K/9 last year, closing some for Chicago. His number one pitch is a wipeout slider, generating memories of B.J. Ryan, although Santos will throw from the right side. If he can have a season somewhat close to Ryan’s 2006 in Toronto, Jays fans will be very happy and his club-friendly deal negotiated by Chicago could easily set him up for six years of reasonably priced service north of the border.
7: A full-time left fielder
When the Jays drafted Travis Snider in 2006 out of high school and brought him to the big leagues as a 20-year-old, the idea is that he would stick and go on to become one of the best young hitters in the league. However, things have gone according to plan. Snider has played parts of four seasons at the big league level, struggling in all of them to a degree. During this time, Eric Thames (drafted in 2007 (39, 1191)) shot to the majors, taking over when Snider struggled in left this year, posting 12 HR, .313 OBP and a .333 wOBA in 95 games. Now with two left fielders both performing poorly, although Snider is 23 and could be age-appropriately at Double-A, it is up to one of them to seize the job. Snider is younger and has much greater potential, while Thames has the greater recent results. This spring training will be a key time for the Blue Jays organization as they choose which player they want to travel forward with as their left fielder, while potentially trading the other.
6: Prospect Development
With the hiring of Alex Anthopoulos and trade of Roy Halladay in the winter of 2009, the Jays entered a temporary rebuild. However, this was different. AA did not want to just build a one year winner, but a team that could perennially contend. He started on his vision by almost doubling the size of the scouting department and acquiring Kyle Drabek, catcher Travis D’Arnaud from the Philadelphia Phillies and through a series of trades ultimately outfielder Anthony Gose by way of the Houston Astros. Drabek saw time in the Majors this season, struggled with his control and spent most of the year in Las Vegas, battling what seemed to be emotional problems with a newfound lack of success. D’Arnaud and Gose were part of the Eastern League Champion New Hampshire Fisher Cats at the Double-A level. Gose hit more home runs in 2011 (16) than in his three previous minor league seasons combined (9) thanks to some swing tweaks, but still stole 69/85 bases (81.2%) on the year. He also flashed a plus, plus arm in centre field and decent range. If Gose keeps on his upward development path, a Gose/Rasmus confrontation could be inevitable and interesting in a few years. D’Arnaud was named Eastern League MVP and Keith Law called him, “the real deal”. He tore some ligaments in his thumb playing in the World Cup of Baseball, but should be ready to go for Spring Training. Of course, the focus is on a speedy recovery.
5: Brett Lawrie Avoiding the Sophomore Slump
Brett Lawrie arrived in the Majors on August 5, as the most hyped Jays prospect in recent memory by a long shot. He had an RBI single in his first at-bat, homered the next day and hit a grand slam at home on August 10. He also had a walk-off homerun for the first 1-0 extra inning walk-off win in the bottom of the 11th inning against the Red Sox on September 5. Although he did not win Rookie of the Year, he led all American League rookies with 2.7 WAR (4th in MLB) despite only playing in 43 games totalling 171 plate appearances. As with any data sample, one must be cautious of the small sample size here. Expecting Lawrie to duplicate these numbers over a full season is clearly unrealistic, but if he can put together a 5.0 WAR season, he could become the Jays long awaited answer to a #5 hitter.
4: Brandon Morrow Gaining Efficiency
Brandon Morrow showed his electric potential this past year by leading the AL (2nd in MLB) in K/9 for qualified pitchers at 10.19. Unfortunately, this also came with a 3.46 BB/9, which capped his average outing length to just less than six innings per start. He allowed two earned runs or less in 14 starts, allowing one or zero in nine of them. However, in eight of them he allowed five or more earned runs, capping out at nine in a game against Boston. Eight of his starts lasted 5.0 IP or fewer, while he completed seven innings ten times. By cutting his walks, he can maximize efficiency and hopefully gain some consistency, as he has the stuff to challenge Romero for the role of team ace.
3: Ricky Romero Becoming Elite
Ricky Romero won a career-high 15 games, while finishing sixth in the AL with a 2.92 ERA, a number that has improved for him every season in the Majors. Unfortunately, this masks a less attractive 4.20 FIP and 3.80 xFIP. He needs to cut his walks (3.20 BB/9), increase his strikeouts (7.12 K/9) and elevate his strikeout to walk ratio to at least 3.00 as opposed to the 2.23 where it sits now. He seems to have figured out a solid gameplan against the Rays, but needs to find ways to be more efficient against the highly patient Red Sox and Yankees, who seem content to allow Romero to work himself into jams. Due to his best weapon being a changeup, left-handed hitters gave him much trouble to a FIP/xFIP line of 5.47/4.87 compared to 3.7/3.42 line against righties. Improvement of command, especially of his curveball and slider would help to straighten out his split. Beating the Red Sox and Yankees more frequently will be key for the Jays to climb in the East and Romero will have to be a big part of that, an answer to the big lefties: CC Sabathia and Jon Lester.
Jays used the DL 21 times for 19 players and lost 706 man-games. Jesse Carlson missed the entire season after a labrum tear, so discounting that, the Jays deal usage was 18 for 20 and 544 man-games. Still staggering. Bautista struggled with injuries in the second half and Adam Lind’s back broke a six-week hot streak and he wasn’t the same after that. Keeping the middle of our lineup healthy and our pitchers on the mound (Romero and Morrow each 30+ starts) will be key to our success in 2012, especially against aging New York and Boston rosters.
1: Fan Support
Paul Beeston made it simple: when more fans come, more money will be spent. If the fans are truly serious about wanting a winner, they need to come out support the good, exciting young team we have now and allow Alex Anthopoulos to gain permission to chase the final pieces.
Christmas Dream: Prince Fielder
We all saw Prince work in Milwaukee and putting him behind Bautista would make the best 3-4 combo in all of baseball.
Merry Christmas Blue Jays fans! See you in April!
With the All-Star Selection Show scheduled to release the teams to the fans across the world in less than 10 hours, I thought I should chime in with my All-Star starting lineup picks.
C: Mauer – Severe power outage at home (0 HR at Target Field) is insignificant when compared to Mauer’s unparalellled ability to reach base and move runners along.
1B: Cabrera – Would love to give spot to Canadian Morneau, but 11 more RBI in five FEWER PAs for Cabrera hard to ignore.
2B: Cano – AL batting leader gets spot. Closest challenger (Pedroia) is now injured and Cano was already head and shoulders above the competition. Might as well add hips now too. 30/100 not unreasonable at this pace. OPS just under 1.000 (.977) doesn’t hurt either, especially from a notoriously thin position.
SS: Gonzalez – Leads shortstops in SLG, OPS, HR and RBI all with a BABIP that is average to slightly unlucky. Jeter would be closest competition but Jeter can’t hold a candle to Gonzalez with the glove.
3B: Beltre – Fenway has revived the ailing slugger. Leads 3B in OPS and is one point behind Cano for the batting lead. Defense is solid as ever too.
OF: Hamilton – .340/19/59. More than one RBI per game in June. That is all.
OF: Crawford – Low K-rate and .378 OBP led to 28 swipes
OF: Rios – Crawford with a bit less speed, more power. Cannon arm too.
SP: Jered Weaver – Leads AL in Ks while showing no peripherals to indicate major correction looming. Should start on his own mound.
SU: Valverde – SMALL ERA for the BIG Potato (under 1.00).
CP: Rivera – Sandman has been awoken at 40 and removed any doubt as to who the best closer in the AL is.
C: Olivo – .926 OPS stellar from catching position
1B: Votto – Most valuable of 1B in terms of team offense, Leads in WAR/wOBA. Won’t make the team though, because Pujols is the popular pick in arguably his worst year. That makes perfect sense.
2B: Prado – NL batting and hits leader deserves to start. This one should be easy since Chase Utley just had surgery.
SS: Ramirez – Leads NL SS in HR, RBI, SB, OBP, SLG, OPS, ISO and WAR. Closest competition (Tulowitzki) hurt, too.
3B: Rolen – Better OPS than Wright, K rate of 17% (Wright 30%). Still the best defensive 3B in the NL if not the game. Wright aided by absurd .402 BABIP while Rolen is at the average (.300). I sense a correction coming.
OF: Holliday – Most valuable OF in NL by WAR. 11 HR, 39 RBI not typical Holliday, but strong considering the funk that Pujols has been in. A hidden defensive gem, he has also nearly won the Cardinals a game with his defense alone.
OF: Ethier – .940 OPS tops among AL OFs as is .402 wOBA. His only knock is horrendous defense, as he ranks near the bottom of the NL in UZR.
OF: Hart – 18 HR, 60 RBI both near the top among NL OFs. BABIP about average (.308) although 17.8 % HR/FB will correct. Although he has not run much this year (4/7 SB) he has stolen 20+ in the past and his speed is surprising for his size.
SP: Johnson J. – Most valuable starter in NL (3.9 WAR tied with Roy Halladay) while 1.82 ERA is also the best mark. 0.96 WHIP is stellar for a SP, while 9.08 K/9 and 2.13 BB/9 build a ratio befitting of a true ace. Despite a 3.10 xFIP which would predict correction from one of the lowest HR/FB rates in the NL, All-Stars are picked based on past and present, not projections. In short, this is your guy.
SU: Broxton – 12.98 K/9 is nasty and 2.08 ERA shows bad luck, considering 1.32 FIP and 2.01 xFIP. .386 BABIP is unsustainably high, so Broxton should get better. Scary.
CP: Wagner – 14.04 K/9 even better than Broxton. At 39, he has resurrected himself as the most dominant closer in the NL after some injury-plagued time with the Mets. 50.3% FB rate is a concern, but xFIP shows a 2.50 mark, still very respectable. Of course, if the .168 opponents’ average (8th among NL RPs) holds up, the fly balls really won’t matter.
Recent reports indicate that the Blue Jays are discussing a trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks that would send Lyle Overbay to the desert is exchange for catcher Chris Snyder (Thanks to MLBTradeRumors.com and Jordan Bastian for that one). This is seen as a method of replacing Rod Barajas and Lyle overbay, both of whom Cito Gaston apparently feuded with throughout the season. Unfortunately for the Jays however, beyond resolving personality clashes this deal makes little to no sense.
Lyle Overbay has one year remaining on a 4 yr/$24M deal. He has been our first baseman since being acquired from Milwaukee before 2006. He is not your typical slugging first baseman, but he has shown to be a great fastball hitter (1.26 Runs Above Average/100 fastballs in 2009, 0.93 career). He hits plenty of doubles and reaches base well (albeit he was in the bottom third of starting first-baseman in 2009 according to wOBA).
His broken hand seemed to bother him for the latter portion of 2007, and 2008, but in the first half of 2009, he showed glimpses of his former self. He mashed for 162 game averages of 20 HR, 92 RBI and 40 doubles prior to the All-Star Break, despite a ridiculously low .250 BABIP. He definitely faded in the second half, but ended up with hitting of .292/.395/.509 against righties while struggling badly against lefties (.190/.256/.278), indicating that his role is clearly as a platoon player, although a very strong one on his good side.
Chris Snyder was one viewed as the D-Backs’ catcher of the future, but injury and simple deterioration have reduced him to a backup or marginal starter skill level at best. Wins Above Replacement does not factor in defense for catchers, but offensively he has been just awful. He has been worth approximately 6.7 wins in his career. Not that impressive for a career that has lasted six seasons and cost his team 24.8 runs (2.5 wins) in his career (with his bat) compared with an average catcher during that span.
Another issue is that the Jays have no one else available to move into a starting role at first base. Randy Ruiz is an idea, but his numbers were clearly inflated by the hitter friendly Pacific Coast League and the fact that he swings at 40% of pitches outside the strike zone in his major league career is a cause for concern in terms of strikeouts. This cause is legitimized by his career strikeout totals (28% of plate appearances in ML, 23% professional). Until Ruiz gains more plate disicipline he will constantly be hampered by his strikeouts which will limit his effectiveness as a hitter. He hit southpaws moderately well as a big-leaguer but anything in that department is an improvement over Overbay. Brian Dopirak is a top prospect and another idea for a righty side of a platoon, but a disappearance of power in AAA, along with a severe drop of wOBA in only a 52-game sample makes me think that Dopirak neess more time and should not be rushed onto the scene. It would be much more developmentally beneficial to allow Dopirak a full year in AAA to see if his power re-emerges nd if he can correct the strikeout issue as opposed to bringing him up and thrusting him into a situation where he is clarly not ready.
These situations are hard on teams. Do we keep the clubhouse happy? Do we do what is best for the team? How much of a factor is money? These are all questions that need to be considered. With all of this in mind, the best option seems to be to keep Lyle in town, let Ruiz take the righty side of a platoon, and move Overbay if all of a sudden he starts to hit very well and we find ourselves out of the race by a long shot.
UPDATE:SUNDAY, 17:25 ET: The Toronto Blue Jays called off the swap because of concerns about Snyder’s surgically repaired back, according to Nick Piecoro of The Arizona Republic.